Iran × USA Conflict Mapping
Geopolitical risk analysis — escalation layers, scenarios, sector impact & investment positioning
Current Escalation Level
Weighted score across 7 escalation layers (0-100)
Escalation Layers
7 dimensions of Iran-US conflict — from cyber to direct strikes
Escalation Scenarios
6 possible paths — probability, oil impact, and market implications
Status quo continues. Sanctions + cyber warfare + proxy skirmishes but no direct confrontation. Tensions simmer without boiling over.
Houthis intensify Red Sea attacks, Iraqi militias increase strikes on US bases. Iran fights through proxies while maintaining deniability.
Iran partially or fully disrupts Strait of Hormuz. Could involve mine-laying, tanker seizures, or IRGC fast-boat swarms against naval vessels.
Direct US strikes on Iranian military targets (IRGC bases, nuclear facilities) or Iranian retaliatory missile attacks. Tit-for-tat exchange.
Sustained military campaign. US air campaign + naval blockade. Iran activates all proxies, launches mass missile salvos. Regional war.
Diplomatic breakthrough — new nuclear deal, sanctions relief, Iran rejoins global economy. The bull case for markets.
Oil Price Impact by Scenario
Brent Crude — Current
$72/bbl
Strait of Hormuz: ~21M bbl/day
20% of global oil transit
Sector Impact Matrix
How each scenario affects different investment sectors — hover for details
| Scenario | ▲Energy / Oil | ◆Defense | ⟁Cybersecurity | ⚓Shipping | ◈Safe Havens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❄Cold Standoff40% | ▲ Benefit | ▲ Benefit | ▲ Benefit | — Neutral | — Neutral |
| ⊘Proxy Escalation25% | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▲ Benefit | ▲▲ Surge | ▲ Benefit |
| ⚓Naval Confrontation15% | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▲ Benefit | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge |
| ◆Limited Strikes12% | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge |
| ⬥Full Conflict5% | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▲▲ Surge | ▼▼ Crash | ▲▲ Surge |
| ◇De-escalation3% | ▼ Hurt | ▼ Hurt | — Neutral | ▼ Hurt | ▼ Hurt |
Conflict Watchlist
Companies & assets positioned for each scenario — with estimated % moves
▲ Energy / Oil(3)
◆ Defense(3)
⟁ Cybersecurity(2)
⚓ Shipping(2)
◈ Safe Havens(2)
Event Timeline
Major Iran-US conflict events — updated through March 2026
US confirms cyber operation disrupted IRGC command-and-control systems. Iran vows retaliation. First publicly acknowledged offensive cyber strike against Iran.
EU adopts 15th sanctions package targeting Iranian entities involved in nuclear procurement. Includes Chinese intermediaries.
US and allies push for snapback of all UN sanctions. China and Russia block resolution. Diplomatic deadlock deepens.
IAEA report confirms traces of 90% enriched uranium at Fordow. Iran claims "unintentional fluctuation." First confirmed weapons-grade enrichment.
One-way attack drone hits perimeter of US base in northeast Syria. No casualties. Routine harassment pattern continues.
USS Nimitz joins USS Eisenhower in Gulf region. Largest US naval presence since 2024 Iran-Israel exchange. Pentagon cites "deterrence posture."
DNI assessment published: Iran could produce enough fissile material for one weapon in 1-2 weeks if it decides. Weaponization would take months.
Cyber group tied to IRGC claims breach of water treatment and municipal systems in several US cities. FBI investigating.
Houthis launch ASBM at USS Gravely in Red Sea. Intercepted by SM-6 missile. First ASBM targeting US warship directly.
Treasury designates CBI governor and 12 Iranian banks facilitating oil revenue laundering. Strongest financial sanctions since 2020.
Reuters reports secret US-Iran negotiations via Omani intermediaries. Both sides deny. Focus reportedly on nuclear freeze-for-sanctions-relief framework.
US OFAC designates several Chinese teapot refineries processing Iranian oil. Diplomatic tension with China.
Iran blocks IAEA inspectors from underground Fordow enrichment plant. Breakout time concerns intensify.
New US administration intensifies "maximum pressure" — targets shadow fleet of tankers carrying Iranian oil to China.
After killing Nasrallah and destroying Hezbollah leadership, ceasefire reached. Iran's strongest proxy severely weakened.
Israel hits IRGC air defense and missile production sites. Iran does not retaliate — temporary de-escalation.
First direct state-on-state attack by Iran. 300+ projectiles launched. 99% intercepted by Israel/US/UK/Jordan coalition.
Massive US retaliation against Iran-linked militia infrastructure. Largest US strikes since 2003.
Tower 22 base in Jordan hit by Iranian proxy drone. First US military deaths from Iran-linked attack since 2020.
Iran-backed Houthis start attacking commercial vessels in Red Sea. Global shipping reroutes around Cape of Good Hope.
Hamas October 7 attack. Iran's proxy network (Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias) all escalate in support. Regional war begins.
Nuclear deal negotiations fail over IRGC designation and verification demands. Maximum pressure continues.
Iran disconnects 27 IAEA surveillance cameras at enrichment facilities. Major blow to monitoring.
Iran-backed militia uses drones to attack US garrison at Al-Tanf base in Syria. First of many proxy drone attacks.
Biden administration opens indirect negotiations with Iran to revive nuclear deal. Seen as potential de-escalation.
Iran fires 16 ballistic missiles at Al Asad and Erbil bases. No US deaths (Iran gave warning). De-escalation follows.
US assassinates Iran's IRGC Quds Force commander at Baghdad airport. Highest-profile US-Iran military action since 1979.
In response to Soleimani killing, Iran declares it will enrich uranium without restrictions. Effective end of nuclear deal.